There are lots of new dynamics at work ... Most of which eventually bear down on the poor author.
Science fiction time:
With my business head on, I can see publishers and agents becoming more like design, branding and distribution consultancies, with each book being/series being regarded as a start-up business in its own right.
You want press-releases, book signings, high profile reviews? Okay - Here's our rate for that.
You want ten thousand copies printed? Here's what we charge for that. Now, let's have a look at the binding and cover services we offer.
In my imagination, the publishers of the future will offer a modular set of consultancy services to authors who are prepared to invest in their work. I think the days of a house taking on a book, all the associated costs, and the entire portion of
financial risk are a thing of the past. The model we'll be looking at will be based on an assumption of "shared risk".
The publishing houses of the future might well look very much like the vanity publishing outfits of the past, but that doesn't mean they will be out to fleece unsuspecting authors. Every book will start with a financial risk assessment and business plan, Consultants will be available to help authors make an informed decision about the appropriate amount financial outlay the 'product' is worth, and how likely it is to return on the author's investment. Publishers will then decide whether to be "in or out" (think
Dragon's Den) based on the perceived risk/reward matrix.
That said, there will still be a gap in the market for a consultancy to organise and rationalise these services and find the best rate for a supply /distribution model at the lowest possible rates. That's where an agency will come in. They'll administrate the business side of the product according to the author's degree of financial investment, attempting to gain the maximum possible value for the writer / consortium, maximising exposure through media connections.
Oh, and there will be legal teams, of course. Plenty of those.
I'm obviously
not an industry insider. It's just basic business. Nobody pays for anything up front any more, and everybody's services are on a clock. With my science fiction head on I can see that everybody who wants to make any sort of living will become a product and commodity in their own right. How well you survive in that eco-system depends on how that brand gets marketed and how long you can stay at the top of the pile. Hence the current best seller by Joey Essex.