The End of Big Publishing

[AgentPete]

People have been predicting the end of traditional publishing for years.

Much of this doom-mongering has been uninformed, often accompanied with the sound of axes grinding.

But now, I can see it for myself, and I need to call it for what it is.

The momentum for change is inescapable. “Big” publishing is rapidly changing: not necessarily winding down, but metamorphosing in ways that fundamentally change the definition of what we have always understood publishing to encompass.

Here are some of the things I see:

• Many of the best, most experienced publishers and editors are being moved out in favour of younger (cheaper) staff. This is not to say that publishing doesn’t need an infusion of new blood – it does – but we are in danger of creating a “year zero” situation.

• Publishing is shifting strongly towards an IP-based culture. Personally, I cannot get excited by the novelization of Avengers: Infinity War – Part 2 which is where we’re headed.

• Mergers and layoffs – self-evident.

• End of the age of Big Advances... which means...

• The end of traditional literary agents (no-one can live on 15% of a £10k advance)

• And finally... Failure to appreciate that the reading culture is fundamentally changing, and adapting to that.

What does all this mean?

We’ll find out in the weeks and months ahead. But for now, let me just say – I still believe in the essential role and relevance of writers to our culture. How do we survive – and thrive – in this rapidly-changing world?

That’s the challenge.

And that is why Litopia will be more, not less, important to the survival of writing and writers in the 21st century.

 

[Marc Joan]

I only have the perspective of a digitally-naive Luddite, but I can't help feeling that there is something fundamental about 'Story' -- in the written form, presented in whatever medium -- that is of enduring appeal. I believe that a significant number of people will always want Story of some form, either to read or to be read to them.
Thinking out loud [or rather in text]: the problem as I see it -- again, from a non-expert, outsider's viewpoint -- is that digital and self-publishing are swamping the market, mostly with rubbish. Overwhelmed with choice, and perhaps disappointed by random forays into said digital swamp, readers mostly stick with what or who they know. And when they need a change, they go with recommendations of some form, whether in the form of word of mouth, or Amazon suggestions, or indeed clever marketing. One consequence of this may be that the market is being stratified into smaller niches, comfort zones from which readers are reluctant to stray [hence the proliferation of absurd microgenres -- zombie apocalypse space opera romances, anyone?]; which will mean that megasales will be more difficult to accomplish; which may mean that making a living will require higher unit prices; which may mean offering something more per unit than just the Story? But these are just random musings from the sidelines; I don't know to what extent they reflect publishing reality. I do wonder if the future of meaningful literature lies with the small presses, however.

 

[Carol Rose]

The market is flooded with garbage, to be quite blunt. Why? Because Amazon has made it too easy for literally anyone to be "published." The gate keepers are all but gone, which means we have a glut of books filled with lousy spelling, grammar mistakes on every page, no cohesive story, and cardboard characters that act and sound as if they were pulled from bad sitcoms. Which they likely were.

If you pay someone enough money and study the Amazon algorithms, you can "market" or "position" your POS book in the right way to make a living off it.

Most readers don't know any better because our education systems are crap. And the ones that do know better are content with reading this drivel because it speaks to a hot trend, a global fantasy, or some other elusive THING that most of us wish we could tap into and channel.

 

[Marc Joan]

Yup. I think a lot of people started off welcoming the demise of the gatekeepers, but for all their faults I wonder if readers and writers were better off when they were here -- seems like they imposed a degree of discipline which has been replaced with a chaotic slide into a free-for-all with no standards.

 

[Chase Gamwell]

And that's why it it falls on us - the writers - to make sure that we produce the best stuff we can. Even if things are set to change in the future, if we do the best we can to contribute to that changing market (by producing fantastic works of fiction/nonfiction for everyone to read), we can help shape it into something good for everyone.

I know that sentiment may be sickeningly positive, but I can't help but think that if I had just thrown myself into the pot with every other Amazon hopeful, I'd be among one of the countless writers that @Carol Rose described. Instead, I wound up finding Litopia and have been painstakingly honing my writing skills. If nothing else, when the upheaval is complete and the dust settles, I (and everyone else here) will be better off for having taken the time to develop my art to the fullest.

 

[Katie-Ellen]

The best writers I can think of have clearly done a Herculean stretch all alone, but in discharging the project, no way do they do it all alone. I am sick of being DM'd on twitter by self-published authors, while at the other end of the spectrum, if James Joyce never got a massive kick up the whatsits from an editor, he blooming well should have.

An agent invited me to sub today via twitter. I won't hold my breath but we've got history-buff interests in common, and of course I'll give it a go.

There seems to be rising a raft of small publishers...real publishers that charge nothing and pay royalties (but no advances) and who may publish initially as e-book only, then hard copy later, depending on sales.

Have a look here, folks http://mswishlist.com/

 

[AgentPete]

Totally agree with all the above.

There is a wilful deception in many parts of the conventional publishing business (was talking about this over lunch with someone who is just as concerned as I am – we are in a growing minority). Major publishers are continuing to produce respectable trading results – fact. Therefore – what could possibly be wrong with the business?

This seems like whistling in the dark to me. It ignores many things, not the least the dismal state of authors’ earnings, and advances.

 

[Robinne Weiss]

Interesting to hear you say this @AgentPete. I've been growing ever more reluctant to query agents and go the 'big publisher' route, because I look at that system and don't see how it can maintain itself for much longer. I thought I was just not seeing the obvious because I'm on the outside looking in, but sounds like my reluctance is justified.

Stories won't go away--we've been telling stories for millions of years. I think the key for writers is going to be to remain flexible as to how and where we meet our readers. And maybe we would do well to think of our readers as our audience instead, and let go of the notion that we must somehow have our stories printed on a page to make them valid. Today's technology allows us so many freedoms in terms of how we tell our stories--audio books, interactive books, video. We need publishers (and storytellers) who can think out of the box and off the printed page.

 

[AgentPete]

I think Big Publishing still has its place. They can (if they want to) spend serious money both on acquiring and promoting titles. Far beyond the reach of any author. Look at 50 Shades (or rather, don’t) to see just how a major publisher can take an internet sensation to the next level of success.

What’s looking increasingly broken, to me, is the ability of Big Publishing to nurture and then break out new authors. That’s serious.

And I totally, agree with you, story will not go away. Humans are hard-wired for it. The challenge for people like me is to figure out the business mechanics of it, i.e. just how will authors manage to support themselves?

This is tough work, and I don’t see many publishing folk prepared to embrace this challenge at the moment.

 

[Brian Clegg]

Peter, I'd be interested to hear a bit more about your thoughts on the future of agents (as I guess you have a bit of a vested interest) - is it to become quasi-publishers? Focus more on talent management (i.e. appearances as much as writing). Or just gradual demise?

 

[Chase Gamwell]

@AgentPete Perhaps this would be a very good discussion for our next monthly meeting? I'd love to have an in depth talk about the industry, where it's going, and my (our) place in it. And I think it would be an especially useful topic for many Litopians since we are all avid writers constantly looking for publishing outlets. I'm sure I'm not the only one querying agents at the moment (or looking for other avenues of publishing) and knowing how to truly understand the ecosystem can only help us in that endeavor.

 

[KG Christopher]

I pretty much agree with everything Chase says. When it comes to writing, planning my work, doing the creative stuff, I am in extasy, I love to write. The other stuff, IE, trying to know where to pitch my MS, how the industry works, just gets me down, I need guidance. So if you could give us some insights at a monthly meetup, I would be grateful.

 

[Katie-Ellen]

What does our resident agent think of this model of publishing?

'Shared risk, shared success.' They ask authors $1k -$5k

| Calumet Editions

This is where agents fit in here: | Calumet Editions

 

[Brian Clegg]

What does our resident agent think of this model of publishing?

'Shared risk, shared success.' They ask authors $1k -$5k

I know what I think - it's called a rip off.

 

[Katie-Ellen]

Their authors are very active on Twitter; a publisher's house style of self promotion. You reckon it's vanity publishing really, Brian, just with the possibility of future revenue.

 

[Brian Clegg]

He may have changed his mind, but in the past, Peter has certainly said that any publisher that asks the author for money is vanity publishing. The trouble is that mostly such publishers give you very little for your money, churning through lots of authors, so you end up effectively self publishing at considerable expense.

If in doubt, always worth a look on Absolute Write Bewares - there are no specific horror stories, but all comments are much as mine: [Publisher] Calumet Editions / Wisdom Editions

 

[Paul Whybrow]

 

[AgentPete]

Peter, I'd be interested to hear a bit more about your thoughts on the future of agents (as I guess you have a bit of a vested interest) - is it to become quasi-publishers? Focus more on talent management (i.e. appearances as much as writing). Or just gradual demise?

Aha... that’s been muchly in discussion at the moment, with my various trade contacts. My thinking is as follows...

To the extent that agents’ income is dependent on that of their clients, they are the canaries in the coalmine. New agents have to do a goodly number of sizable deals in order to survive, e.g. let’s say you need a minimum of 100k turnover p.a., averaging 17.5% commission, that means you’ve got to do about 600k of new deals. In the past, that used to be fairly easy – one good deal could easily be worth that. These days, with advances falling for all but the surest of bets, it’s more difficult.

To the extent that agents’ income is not dependent on doing new deals, but on the backlist... they are cushioned... for now. Older agencies therefore have more financial resilience than newcomers. But a couple of caveats – first, that situation will not continue indefinitely (backlist sales will decline as physical devolves to digital). More worryingly, it means that older agencies will not have the financial incentive to aggressively develop new skills / respond to changing market conditions. They are liable to wake up one fine morning to discover that they no longer have a business.

It’s no secret that a few years ago I was in discussions with several agencies on both sides of the pond with a view to acquisition. I wouldn’t do that today – although I’m sure many agencies are quietly on the block.

 

[AgentPete]

He may have changed his mind, but in the past, Peter has certainly said that any publisher that asks the author for money is vanity publishing. The trouble is that mostly such publishers give you very little for your money, churning through lots of authors, so you end up effectively self publishing at considerable expense.

If in doubt, always worth a look on Absolute Write Bewares - there are no specific horror stories, but all comments are much as mine: [Publisher] Calumet Editions / Wisdom Editions

No haven't changed my mind A very cursory glance over their website fails to convince me they're bringing anything meaningful to the table. On the upside, they're not as obfuscatory as most of the older-gen vanity publishers, who raised expectations to a crazy degree. Can't see anything to commend them, steer clear.